8th September 2020
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Mexican and Colombian cartels continue to fuel soaring demand for illicit narcotics across the US and beyond
Today’s Global Financial Integrity report on soaring illicit narcotics sales serves as a sharp reminder of the continued threats posed by drugs cartels across the US, Mexico and Colombia.
I’ve already blogged elsewhere (link) on the main findings and recommendations contained within GFI’s excellent study, which can be read in full here (link to GFI report).
But in this shorter Part II blog, I want to focus on some of the extraordinary facts and figures about the types of illegal drugs which continue to flood into the US, and elsewhere, despite the States’ ongoing “war on drugs” – and the changing demand which modifies how cartels and traffickers behave.
The GFI study, of course, is primarily focused on the scale of illicit finance flows emerging from illegal drugs sales between the US, Mexico and Colombia – and the policy changes which could be introduced to help tackle the problem.
But what also struck me about the report was the well-evidenced breakdown of the drugs now fuelling demand from a US population (and others) increasingly hooked on illegal substances. Such analyses are essential not to glamorise or sensationalise the issues. Instead, they provide much-needed context on the kinds of substances which now represent the real threats faced by law enforcement officials, intelligence agencies, local governments and national politicians determined to fight the scourge of drug use/addition and the illicit finances which flow from it.
The GFI study draws on hard evidence from the likes of the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Mexican government National Risk Assessments and US health data (including urine test analyses) to provide a breakdown of drug use across America, the value of each market and the level of production in Mexico, Colombia and the US required to ‘feed’ that demand.
While the figures make for uncomfortable reading, these are important for any organisation which genuinely wants to develop effective policies designed to combat the illicit narcotics market and its associated financial activities. Understanding what is being sought by drug users in the US, and where those drugs come from, helps agencies to develop more effective ways of combating supply, consumption and the aftermath.
Cocaine
The GFI study draws on existing consumer-demand methodologies to estimate that the US now has a population of 10.1 million people who use cocaine on a reasonably regular basis. Incredibly, that equates to a population the size of Sweden or Portugal, fuelling daily demand for drugs cartels’ products.
With those figures in mind, and the corresponding value of such illegal sales, is it any wonder that the cartels have become so powerful across many parts of the globe – and particularly central and south America?
The value of the Mexico-Colombia fuelled cocaine market in the US is currently estimated to be $10.4bn annually.
Yet figures for the sales of cocaine are dwarfed by those for two drugs which are really behind the continued rise of the cartels: methamphetamine and heroin.
Methamphetamine
The US has an estimated 6.2m regular methamphetamine – or “crystal meth” – users. That’s a population bigger than Denmark’s. The real problem for law enforcement agencies is that crystal meth is far more addictive than cocaine, meaning that once dealers have their customers hooked, there is a strong likelihood that those involved will spend vast sums maintaining their habit (and the illegal activities which often pay for it).
The Mexico-Colombia fuelled crystal meth market in the US is valued at around $45.2bn annually – by far the most lucrative illicit narcotics market, and a fact which has meant that significant anti-narcotics resources have been forcibly redeployed to combat crystal meth use in recent decades.
Heroin
An estimated 3.5 million Americans are thought to be regular heroin users – the equivalent of Uruguay’s entire population.
The US heroin market fuelled by cartels in Mexico and Colombia is valued at around $24.8bn annually – a lucrative market for Mexican and Colombian cartels, despite fierce competition from organised crime in south-east Asia (where opium plant crops are also widely cultivated).
Marijuana
While the US is estimated to be home to some 26.7 million regular marijuana users – more than the entire population of Australia – the drug’s significance to cartels is in decline due to its decriminalisation in some US states and the fact that many users ‘grow their own’ illegal supplies.
Despite this, the illegal US marijuana market supplied primarily by Mexico and Colombia is still estimated to be worth $1.8bn annually.
Fentanyl
The dangerous ‘new’ kid on the block. US law enforcement officials have told me directly that they see the increasing threat posed by opioid-based painkillers such as Fentanyl as a significant problem.
The number of overdose deaths due to fentanyl abuse, and abuse of similar drugs, has soared in recent years. Fentanyl has been increasingly mixed with cocaine or heroin by some drug dealers and users – with lethal results.
The number of regular Fentanyl users in the US has now reached 3.3 million people – more than the entire population of Bosnia – and the illicit US/Colombian/Mexican market is valued at $4.9 million.
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