7th July 2021
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As the UK ponders lifting COVID restrictions, could masks become a thing of the past?
As I write, UK ministers are reviewing updated COVID-19 figures intending to lift most restrictions from 19 July – but hospital doctors have warned A&Es are already overwhelmed and face a further criss unless some anti-virus measures are retained.
New health secretary Sajid Javid has made clear his desire to lift almost all COVID restrictions and laws in England from 19 July. The rest of the UK IS expected to follow suit swiftly. The plan to ease restrictions could be confirmed as early as 12 July following an ongoing review of COVID-related data.
In simple terms, many politicians – and indeed some key scientists – appear sufficiently confident that vaccines have broken the link between UK infection rates and deaths. At least, enough to re-open the UK economy as much as possible and begin to return society to some form of normality.
It is, of course, an admirable aim following almost 18 months of severe disruption and devastation to every household across the four home nations.
However, as we have seen in recent weeks, COVID infection rates have begun to rise steadily again, albeit from a low base, fuelled by the more transmissible Delta variant. So critics of the government’s plan to lift almost all restrictions have called for some current practices, such as wearing masks in specific public spaces, to be retained for the time being.
It is a debate I’m sure you’re all familiar with, so I won’t linger on it.
But being a public policy geek, I like to keep one eye on serious public sector ‘trade’ publications to see how experts react to political and social developments. One such magazine is the impressive Health Service Journal (HSJ).
Yesterday, I saw a Tweet from HSJ editor Alastair McLellan, not a journalist inclined to exaggeration and hyperbole, who warned that the number of Covid positive patients in England is ‘now growing at 38% per week’. According to Alastair, that is the fastest rate of increase since last October (2020). Worryingly, McLellan signed off his Tweet: “I think we’re in real trouble!”
Now, the HSJ is a serious health sector magazine and not a Fleet Street tabloid. So Alastair’s warning made me sit up and take notice.
This morning, I was also contacted by a senior consultant at a hospital in England. And the doctor, who wishes to remain anonymous, warned of a potential problem with the government’s 19 July plan.
“The decision to stop all COVID restrictions is populist politics which will most likely lead to the NHS being overwhelmed,” my source said.
“Most A&E departments are already overwhelmed because of a change in primary care working leading to most patients coming to ED [emergency departments] for all healthcare.
“Referrals to outpatient clinics have also massively increased. Even a 10% rise in COVID hospitalisations will lead to a completely unmanageable demand.”
In short, while the vaccines and tight public health measures have helped to reduce rates of infection massively since the winter ‘second wave’, people should not assume that A&E departments are now empty and capable of efficiently managing the inevitable spike in admissions that will follow the easing of all restrictions beyond 19 July (or whenever the government makes that difficult decision).
Indeed, other doctors I contacted today also warned that emergency departments are already full of patients pushed towards A&E from different parts of the recovering health system since the second COVID wave.
Invariably, for example, and against all warnings, many members of the public are again beginning to use A&E as an alternative to their GP surgeries and are visiting for relatively minor ailments – sometimes because GP surgeries, still enforcing COVID measures, have substantial waiting lists for appointments.
But this is merely causing backlogs, and lengthy waiting times, at A&E departments. One doctor said A&E waiting times are now similar to those of the dark days of the 1990s, when patients often waited up to 14 hours before they could see a doctor.
These circumstances are not peculiar to the consultant who contacted me directly, either. This morning, I spoke directly to three other very senior hospital doctors – across England and Wales – all of whom reported similar problems.
One added: “There is a great fear that if the government goes ahead with lifting all restrictions from 19 July, or a date close to that, we will be swamped. Obviously, the number of COVID infections is expected to spike after that. We hope that spike is not at the same level as the winter wave and, of course, the vaccines should reduce deaths.
“But hospitals will still deal with rising numbers of people falling very ill with COVID, including ITU admissions: possibly younger patients than the most vulnerable who have already received full vaccines. In addition to that expected spike, my hospital is dealing with significant A&E numbers caused by non-COVID admissions right now. Lifting all COVID restrictions without retaining sensible public measures to reduce infections risks a big problem”
It is a sentiment echoed by health professionals across the UK.
Now, I certainly don’t want to sound like a scaremonger. People worldwide have lived with the harsh realities of COVID-19 for 18 months or more – and there are only so many restrictions that populations can take. Lifting COVID restrictions is a natural progression now that the world, and particularly the developed world (unfortunately), has vaccines.
But the whole point of implementing many of the UK’s COVID measures was to protect a National Health Service which could otherwise collapse under the weight of admissions and costs attached to treatments. The most significant risk of that has perhaps abated. But there remains a sizable risk to the NHS – not just from a fresh wave of post-restrictions admissions, but also from hospital admissions from non-covid patients.
Politicians ought to take heed.
Mature, thoughtful citizens understand the delicate and challenging nature of the decision facing Sajid Javid on 12 July. He wants to get society and the economy back to normal – and will, no doubt, take sage advice (excuse the pun). But it seems that there is a strong argument for retaining sensible public health measures that will continue to ensure the NHS is not overwhelmed. Otherwise, we have to ask ourselves: “What has it all been for?”
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